Ya Know, Adobe Has Server Products Too!

I kept reading and reading while waiting for him to make the same timeline suggestions about their server products, which would have solidified his thesis, but it never came. So, like the countless other articles I've read about the Adobe/Macromedia merger where all the focus seems to stay on client-side products (which are certainly important, to be sure), a business reporter has yet again forgotten a crucial point: ADOBE HAS SERVER PRODUCTS TOO!!

Perhaps Marc missed the major announcements surrounding the Flex 2 product line or the pending update to ColdFusion MX (aka Mystic) that will allow seamless integration between Flex 2 and ColdFusion? There is a revolution coming, and it will be well before Q4, and it seems like business reporters and investment analysts are either not buying into it or just glossing over it. I would submit it's the latter. Flex 2 and the ColdFusion updater are both already in Beta 1, and there have been hints that the launch will be in a late Q2 or early Q3 timeframe. I just can't see a product that is already in a full-featured beta being dragged out another 8-10 months. That would absolutely kill the buzz surrounding the product and its potential impact. Oh, and by the way, the pricing model for the server products is much higher than even the Premium lines of their client products. So even though Marc notes that revenues will climb, I think he's underestimating the numbers that Adobe can realize in the Q3/Q4 period.

Was Marc's article entirely off the mark? No. For starters, there is a current period of stagnation with Adobe as they continue the public beta cycles for the aforementioned products. So I agree with his assessment that there's really no reason for the stock to be jumping any time soon. Further, he makes a point about CEO Bruce Chizen that I happen to agree with. He writes:

One other issue bothers me: CEO Bruce Chizen has options on 3.7 million shares. While that's worth a lot of bread, it's not an unusual number for a CEO these days. But what's peculiar is that the CEO does not currently own any Adobe shares and hasn't since 2003. One could argue that his options keep his interests aligned with shareholders. At the same time, I'd like to see a CEO put his money where his mouth is and own the stock.

I whole-heartedly agree with this. It's a bit disconcerting, even on a superficial level to know that the CEO of a multi-billion dollar company does not directly own any shares of the company that (s)he runs. Yet Mr. Chizen is the "face" of Adobe, so to speak. As an investor, that suggests to me that the "face" of the company doesn't have 100% confidence in the product he is selling and asking us to buy. I'd like to see Mr. Chizen exercise his options on some or all of the shares to which he is entitled. That's more of a statement that any investor meeting could be.

One last thing about the article got me thinking: Why is it that the business writers and investment analysts continue to ignore the server products? I don't think it's malicious or even (always) intentional. Rather, I think it's a mis-education and the lack of grassroots marketing. I think that we, as developers in the trenches, all too often leave the marketing of a product to the vendor. I would submit that there's a mentality of "Hey, it's their product. Let them market it." Well, Axosoft just ran a 3-day grassroot-only marketing campaign where they gave away 5-User licenses of their OnTime Project Managment software for $5. It was a social experiment to gauge the power of blogs and other grassroots marketing vehicles. The campaign is now over, and, in 3 days, they moved 2,633 units for a grand total of $13,165, all of which goes to the American Red Cross! That's the power that blogs and other social tools can have if used smartly.

I completely agree with recent blog entries by Mike Rankin and John Dowdell (John had a great follow-up on Why Flex Matters as well), in which they use their blogs to put out the word on Flex 2. It's time for anyone who has a public means by which they can get the word out to do their part in promoting the coming revolution. Make no mistake, "revolution" is not the wrong choice of words. Even if it's not ultimately Flex 2 that the world shifts to, web development is moving towards Rich Internet Applications. Microsoft's Vista will be shipping "Avalon" to create Windows-based RIAs. So it's not just Adobe who's trying to move the developer community in this direction. Whether or not writers or analysts can see that doesn't necessarily matter just yet. We need to start beating the drums now, and beating them loudly.

Maybe then Adobe's server products will get the legs they need to become financial focal points of investors and the worries about Microsoft's pending foray into Adobe's territory will be diminished.